Atlantic Herring Working Group Members
SAW Working Group Chair: Gary Shepherd
Lead Assessment Scientist: Jon Deroba
Members: Deirdre Boelke, Ashleen Benson, Matt Cieri, Sarah Gaichas, Chris Legault, John Manderson.
NEFSC Clark Conference Room
Woods Hole, MA
February 6 – February 8, 2018
Terms of Reference to be addressed:
1) Estimate catch from all sources including landings and discards. Describe the spatial and temporal distribution of landings, discards and fishing effort. Characterize uncertainty in these sources of data. Comment on other data sources that were considered but were not included.
2) Present the survey data used in the assessment (e.g., regional indices of abundance, recruitment, state surveys, age-length data, food habits, etc.). Characterize the uncertainty and any bias in these sources of data.
3) Estimate consumption of herring, at various life stages. Characterize the uncertainty of the consumption estimates. Address whether herring distribution has been affected by environmental changes.
8) If possible, make a recommendation about whether there is a need to modify the current stock definition for future assessments.
9) For any research recommendations listed in SARC and other recent peer reviewed assessment and review panel reports, review, evaluate and report on the status of those research recommendations. Identify new research recommendations.
Data Meeting Agenda
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
9:00 am – 5:00 pm
- Introductions and logistics
- Approve agenda
- Herring stock issues
- Commercial data sources
- Characterize landings
- Discard estimates
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
9:00 am – 5:00 pm
- NMFS Surveys
- Bottom Trawl
- State surveys
- Age and Growth
- Catch at age development
Thursday, February 8, 2018 9:00 am – 5:00 pm
- Food habits / Consumption
- Preliminary Model discussions
- Review Data conclusions
- Model Meeting dates and issues
Additional Terms of Reference for Model Meeting (dates TBD):
4) Estimate annual fishing mortality, recruitment and stock biomass (both total and spawning stock) for the time series, and estimate their uncertainty. Incorporate ecosystem information from TOR-3 into the assessment model, as appropriate. Include retrospective analyses (both historical and within-model) to allow a comparison with previous assessment results and projections, and to examine model fit.
5) State the existing stock status definitions for “overfished” and “overfishing”. Then update or redefine biological reference points (BRPs; point estimates or proxies for BMSY, BTHRESHOLD, FMSY and MSY) and provide estimates of their uncertainty. If analytic model-based estimates are unavailable, consider recommending alternative measurable proxies for BRPs. Comment on the scientific adequacy of existing BRPs and the “new” (i.e., updated, redefined, or alternative) BRPs.
6) Make a recommendation about what stock status appears to be based on the existing model (from previous peer reviewed accepted assessment) and based on a new model or model formulation developed for this peer review.
a. Update the existing model with new data and evaluate stock status (overfished and overfishing) with respect to the existing BRP estimates.
b. Then use the newly proposed model and evaluate stock status with respect to “new” BRPs and their estimates (from TOR-5).
c. Include descriptions of stock status based on simple indicators/metrics.
7) Develop approaches and apply them to conduct stock projections.
a. Provide numerical annual projections (through 2021) and the statistical distribution (i.e., probability density function) of the catch at FMSY or an FMSY proxy (i.e. the overfishing level, OFL) (see Appendix to the SAW TORs). Each projection should estimate and report annual probabilities of exceeding threshold BRPs for F, and probabilities of falling below threshold BRPs for biomass. Use a sensitivity analysis approach in which a range of assumptions about the most important uncertainties in the assessment are considered (e.g., terminal year abundance, variability in recruitment).
b. Comment on which projections seem most realistic. Consider the major uncertainties in the assessment as well as sensitivity of the projections to various assumptions. Identify reasonable projection parameters (recruitment, weight-at-age, retrospective adjustments, etc.) to use when setting specifications.
c. Describe this stock’s vulnerability (see “Appendix to the SAW TORs”) to becoming overfished, and how this could affect the choice of ABC.
Meeting Connection Details
Adobe Connect link: https://noaast.adobeconnect.com/herring-wg
877/653-6612 (toll free)
517/600-4840 (toll; for international callers)
Participant code: 8116908
Attending the conference in Woods Hole (August 15th- August 18th): Please check in with front desk (you will need a photo ID) for Visitor sign-in, Parking Permit and door code to enter the Aquarium Building (door on side next to Town Dock). Parking is available in NEFSC parking lots or on the street. If you park on the street, you MUST deposit money in the meter or you will be ticketed/towed/ and flogged.