Atlantic Herring Working Group Members

SAW Working Group Chair: Gary Shepherd

Lead Assessment Scientist: Jon Deroba

Members: Deirdre Boelke, Ashleen Benson, Matt Cieri, Sarah Gaichas, Chris Legault, John Manderson.


Atlantic Herring Model Working Group Meeting, May 2-4, 2018

Waquoit Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (WBNERR)
Waquoit, MA

Meeting Connection Details

Adobe Connect link: https://noaast.adobeconnect.com/herring
No teleconference line is available for this meeting. Adobe Connect audio will be used.

Logistics:

Attending the peer review meeting at WBNERR: Meeting will be held in the Boat House on the WBNERR property. Once you enter the property, follow signs for the Boat House (to the left) and Public Parking. Refrigerator available for lunches. We recommend bringing your lunch with you if possible.

Directions to WBNERR

Terms of Reference addressed:

  1. Estimate annual fishing mortality, recruitment and stock biomass (both total and spawning stock) for the time series, and estimate their uncertainty. Incorporate ecosystem information from TOR-3 into the assessment model, as appropriate. Include retrospective analyses (both historical and within-model) to allow a comparison with previous assessment results and projections, and to examine model fit.
  2. State the existing stock status definitions for “overfished” and “overfishing”. Then update or redefine biological reference points (BRPs; point estimates or proxies for BMSY, BTHRESHOLD, FMSY and MSY) and provide estimates of their uncertainty. If analytic model-based estimates are unavailable, consider recommending alternative measurable proxies for BRPs. Comment on the scientific adequacy of existing BRPs and the “new” (i.e. updated, redefined , or alternative) BRPs.
  3. Make a recommendation about what stock status appears to be based on the existing model (from previous peer reviewed accepted assessment) and based on a new model or model formulation developed for this peer review.
    1. Update the existing model with new data and evaluate stock status (overfished and overfishing) with respect to the existing BRP estimates.
    2. Then use the newly proposed model and evaluate stock status with respect to “new” BRPs and their estimates (from TOR-5).
    3. Include descriptions of stock status based on simple indicators/metrics.
  4. Develop approaches and apply them to conduct stock projections.
    1. Provide numerical annual projections (through 2021) and the statistical distribution (i.e. probability density function) of the catch at FMSY or an FMSY proxy (i.e. overfishing level, OFL) (see Appendix to the SAW TORs). Each projection should estimate and report annual probabilities of exceeding threshold BRPs for F, and probabilities of falling below threshold BRPs for biomass. Use a sensitivity analysis approach in which a range of assumptions about the most important uncertainties in the assessment are considered (e.g. terminal year abundance, variability in recruitment).
    2. Comment on which projections seem most realistic. Consider the major uncertainties in the assessment as well as sensitivity of the projections to various assumptions. Identify reasonable projection parameters (recruitment, weight -at-age, retrospective adjustments, etc.) to use when setting specifications.
    3. Describe the stock’s vulnerability (see “Appendix to the SARC TORs”) to becoming overfished, and how this could affect the choice of ABC (or DEF, possibly even GH&I).
  5. If possible, make a recommendation about whether there is a need to modify the current stock definition for future assessments.
  6. For any research recommendations listed in SARC and other recent peer reviewed assessment and review panel reports, review, evaluate and report on the status of those research recommendations. Identify new research recommendations.

Model Meeting Agenda

Wednesday, May 2, 2018
9:00 am – 5:00 pm

  • Introduction and logistics
    • Where we are, where to get lunch, etc.
  • Approve agenda
  • Review Data Meeting conclusions
  • Review follow-up assignments
  • Review of past modeling efforts
  • Review model input data (limit to final information not available at data meeting)
  • Primary model – ASAP
    • Initial run results
    • Refine model estimates

Thursday, May 3, 2018
9:00 am – 5:00 pm

  • Examine alternative models
    • SAM
    • SS3 (preliminary only)
  • Alternative model runs
  • Conclude model decisions
  • Retrospective analysis
    • Model retrospective
    • Historical retrospective
  • MCMC results
    • Characterize uncertainty
  • Biological Reference Points
  • Projection options

Friday, May 4 2018
9:00 am – 5:00 pm

  • Examine projection results
  • Determine stock status
    • Based on BRPs
    • Based on simple indicators
  • Vulnerability
  • Research recommendations
  • Adjourn
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