Ecosystem Forecast-Experimental Data Product
As weather and earth system models have improved, monthly forecasts over seasonal scales ranging up to seven months in advance have improved in quality. For each of the ecoregions of the Northeast Shelf, forecasts from an ensemble of seven forecast models are provided starting with the forecast estimates for February 2017 and ending in August 2017. There was model agreement in the forecasts for the Middle Atlantic Bight, suggesting that sea surface temperature will rebound in the coming months to an ensemble mean of approximately 0.9°C above average. In the Northern subareas there was less model agreement as suggested by wider error bands on the ensemble forecast; however, the forecasts suggest SST will be approximately 1.2°C above average in these areas.