Ecosystems Dynamics & Assessment : Current Conditions (Spring 2018)

Ecosystem Forecast - Experimental Data Product

As weather and earth system models have improved, monthly forecasts over seasonal scales ranging up to seven months in advance have improved in quality. For each of the ecoregions of the Northeast Shelf, forecasts from an ensemble of seven forecast models are provided starting with the forecast estimates for May 2018 and ending in November 2018. There was model agreement in the forecasts for the Middle Atlantic Bight suggesting that sea surface temperature will rebound in the coming months to an ensemble means of approximately 0.6°C above average. In the Northern subareas there was less model agreement as suggested by wider error bands on the ensemble forecast; however, the forecasts suggest SST will be approximately 1.0°C above average in these areas.

graph showing 2017 sea surface temperature forecast, Georges Bank
Georges Bank
graph showing 2017 sea surface temperature forecast, Gulf of Maine
Gulf of Maine
graph showing 2017 sea surface temperature forecast, Middle Atlantic Bight
Middle Atlantic Bight
graph showing 2017 sea surface temperature forecast, Scotian Shelf
Scotian Shelf
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