Table 2.  Model results based on 1989-2005 2-year running sum trend with a starting population size of 34,881 adult female loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and quasi-extinction threshold equal to 250 adult females for base model and model with Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery takes added back into population.

Base
 Model

With Fishery Takes Added Back In

Population Trend

-0.022

-0.019

Variance of trend

0.012

0.012

Upper confidence limit

0.039

0.042

Lower confidence limit

-0.084

-0.080

Quasi-extinction risk with 95% confidence interval in  parentheses

@ 25 years

0.00 (0, 0)

0.00 (0, 0)

@ 50 years

0.00 (0, 0)

0.00 (0, 0)

@ 75 years

0.00 (0, 0.09)

0.00 (0, 0.02)

@ 100 years

0.01 (0, 0.46)

0.01 (0, 0.31)

Median time to extinction

207 years

240 years